Macron looks to the stronghold of London in the tight elections in France

Emmanuel Macron once described London as the sixth largest city in France because many French people live and work there – and he could need their help when a tense presidential election begins on Sunday.

A late sprint by far-right challenger Marine Le Pen threatens to cause an upset in what just weeks ago looked like a smooth re-election campaign for Mr Macron.

An electoral setback for the president following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has given way to slacking support amid fears about the cost of living, making Macron’s minimal campaign seem cocky rather than statesmanlike.

A poll released on Thursday showed Ms Le Pen leading for the first time in a possible runoff with Mr Macron if they emerge as expected as the top two candidates from Sunday’s first round.

Far from downplaying the possibility of a Le Pen victory, Mr Macron’s allies such as Alexandre Holroyd, the MP for French expats in Britain and Northern Europe, are using him to motivate voters in the final stages of the election campaign.

“Their view and vision of society has not changed, although their tone has changed,” Mr Holroyd said The Nationalwhich refers to Ms Le Pen’s attempts to detoxify her party and rebrand herself as a cat-loving working-class sympathizer.

Voter cheering is of particular concern as the war in Ukraine and an initial complacency surrounding Mr Macron’s re-election are blamed by experts for what polls indicate will be low turnout.

Expatriates will face the additional hurdle of finding their way to one of just 15 polling stations in England and Scotland on Sunday, with absentee ballots not accepted in the presidential campaign.

Mr Macron, 44, will be hoping they make it to the ballot box after expats in the UK provided him with one of his most impressive strongholds in his maiden election victory in 2017.

On that occasion he snuffed out Ms Le Pen by 95 to 5 per cent among the typically cosmopolitan voters in Britain and built up a final round lead of more than 43,000 votes, surpassed only by his lead in Switzerland.

“I feel like the diaspora is much more liberal here, hardly anyone here would vote far right,” said Alexander Bradford, a Franco-British business director who plans to vote in Fulham, west London. “I think that comes from the internationality – you become more open-minded.”

Mr Bradford is a supporter of Mr Macron, describing him as a pro-business president who kept his promises five years ago when his new centrist party turned the political scene upside down.

He lauds him for steering a course between the political extremes, a point often stressed by the president’s allies when Ms Le Pen, 53, and far-left Jean-Luc Melenchon, 70, are down in the polls to win.

But he says Mr Macron has “gone from being a total outsider to becoming a quintessential establishment” – underscoring one of the problems that have plagued the president during his tenure.

Amid fears that rising living costs will reignite the “yellow vest” protests that torched Paris in 2018 and 2019, Mr Macron is struggling to shake off his reputation as the snobbish “president of the rich”.

His rivals have pounced on revelations about large sums his government paid to America’s high-end consultants McKinsey, portraying him as a taunt to voters and a waste of their taxpayer dollars.

Ms Le Pen and Mr Melenchon both perform better in rankings based on which candidates speak the language of ordinary voters, said Dr. Paul Smith, a French policy expert at the University of Nottingham.

“Then when you ask the next question, which candidate do you think has the best handle on the cost of living issues, the answer isn’t Macron,” said Dr. Smith.

Mr. Macron waited until early March to officially enter the fray, preferring to show leadership by negotiating with Russian President Vladimir Putin and enacting defense and security reforms in Europe.

That earned him points for statesmanship, which his supporters sought to contrast with pro-Kremlin statements by some of his rivals, including Ms Le Pen, who once called Mr Putin and Donald Trump her best political comrades.

It also put world affairs at the center of a political debate, where they are sometimes ignored even though they make up a large part of the president’s job, a former diplomatic official said.

“Eighty percent of their job is doing European and foreign affairs and they are unprepared for that in the vast majority of cases,” she said, while Mr. Macron now has five years of experience.

Mr Macron’s camp has also stressed his record as a champion of the European Union, a position that could resonate well with French voters in Britain in the first post-Brexit presidential election, said Dr. Smith.

By contrast, Ms Le Pen has a nationalistic distrust of the world outside France and Mr Melenchon tends to caricature expats in the UK as if they were all wealthy City of London financiers, he said.

Neither Ms. Le Pen nor her far-right candidate Eric Zemmour, whose anti-immigration tirades displaying almost cartoonish nostalgia for a pre-multicultural France gave him a short-lived boost over the past year, say they are in favor of leaving the EU.

But both want to take back powers from Brussels, are lukewarm about NATO and a far-right victory would mean “turning our backs on the international stage,” Mr Holroyd said.

Centre-right candidate Valerie Pecresse has faded in the polls since her nomination in December and looks unlikely to make the runoff, while Mr Melenchon still has a chance after emerging as the main force on the left.

Unless no candidate wins an absolute majority on Sunday, the two finalists have two weeks to present their case before the finals on April 24.

Supporters of mainstream parties have historically put aside their differences to keep Ms Le Pen and her father Jean-Marie away from her, but many doubt this “Republican front” will continue.

“Last time the idea of ​​Le Pen winning in the second round was impossible, but this time it’s very close,” said Bradford. “The French like to surprise.”

Updated April 09, 2022, 6:00 am