The UK, US and Eurozone in the coming week

  • Quiet week after Fed rate decision
  • Parliamentary elections in Italy
  • US inflation update

Monday, September 26th

That The Italian general elections will take place on Sunday 25th September and attempts will be made to form a government. Overnight we have the UK Rightmove House Price Index and the Japanese Flash Manufacturing PMI. The German ifo business climate survey and a speech by Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel will follow later. There are several other speeches by central bankers, including ECB President Christine Lagarde and Federal Reserve FOMC members Susan Collins, Silvana Tenreyro and Loretta Mester. Today’s Contain winnings announcements AGM Group Holdings, Republic First Bancorp and Monarch Mining.

Tuesday, September 27th

German Retail Sales are the first to be released, followed by M3 Money Supply and Eurozone Private Loans. From the US we have Durable Goods, New Home Sales, the Richmond Manufacturing Index, the S&P/Case Shiller Composite House Price Index and the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Number. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is set to participate in a panel discussion on digital currencies at an event in Paris. Key earnings releases on Tuesday include BlackBerry, Heritage Cannabis and Vitality Products.

Wednesday 28 September

Overnight we have the British Retail Consortium’s retail price index. Then we have minutes from the Bank of Japan’s latest monetary policy meeting and Australian Retail Sales. Later in the morning there is the German GfK consumer climate survey. Not only has the poll been negative since November of last year, but it has fallen sharply over the past six months. It is a measure of financial confidence and a leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the bulk of German economic activity. Consequently, the bad figures show the problems of the German economy and thus of the euro zone as a whole. From Switzerland we have the Credit Suisse Economic Expectations Survey. This too remains deeply negative and investors are hoping for a turnaround soon. From the US we have the Merchandise Trade Balance, Wholesale Inventories, Crude Oil Weekly Inventories and Pending Home Sales. We will also hear from FOMC member James Bullard. Key earnings reports come from Cintas Corp, Jeffries Financial, Paychex and Vail Resorts.

Thursday, September 29th

From the Eurozone we have the German Preliminary CPI and the Spanish Flash CPI. From the UK we have the M4 money supply, mortgage approvals and net lending to individuals. We have the latest monthly update on Canadian GDP and from the US we have final GDP and weekly jobless claims. FOMC member Loretta Mester will speak again. Key Earnings Reports come from Rite Aid, Bed, Bath & Beyond, Carmax, Nike and Micron Technology.

Friday, September 30th

Overnight Japanese Unemployment Rate will be released along with Pre-Industrial Production, Consumer Confidence, Housing Starts and Retail Sales. From Australia we have Private Sector Credit, while from China we have Manufacturing PMI, Non-Manufacturing PMI and Caixin Manufacturing PMI. From the UK there is Current Account, Final GDP, Revised Business Investment, M4 Money Supply, Mortgage Approval and Net Lending to Individuals. We have Swiss Retail Sales and KOF Economic Barometer, while from Eurozone we have German Unemployment, Italian Unemployment, Italian CPI and Eurozone Unemployment and Flash CPI. Last month, the headline CPI hit +9.1% year-on-year, the highest level on record. This sustained price hike prompted the European Central Bank (ECB) to raise interest rates by 75 basis points at its September meeting, with further rate hikes hinted at. The ECB’s main refinancing rate is now at 1.25%, the highest since November 2011 but still well below US and UK benchmark rates. From the US we have Personal Income, Personal Spending, Consumer Sentiment, Inflation Expectations and the Chicago PMI. but The headline data release for this week is the Core PCE Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation. If this follows the last CPI update and ticks higher, it will be another indication that US inflation has not yet peaked.

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